951

FXXT11 EGRR 101603



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND

                 SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.02.2026



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 31.7S 159.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.02.2026   12  31.4S 159.1W     1011            37

    1200UTC 11.02.2026   24  32.3S 155.8W     1009            37

    0000UTC 12.02.2026   36  31.8S 154.5W     1009            27

    1200UTC 12.02.2026   48              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.2S 153.2E



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 14.02.2026   84  17.2S 153.2E     1004            21

    1200UTC 14.02.2026   96  17.0S 153.0E     1003            25

    0000UTC 15.02.2026  108  17.5S 152.6E     1002            23

    1200UTC 15.02.2026  120  17.7S 153.3E     1001            24

    0000UTC 16.02.2026  132  18.1S 153.7E     1000            27

    1200UTC 16.02.2026  144  18.4S 155.0E     1000            31

    0000UTC 17.02.2026  156  18.6S 155.9E      999            29

    1200UTC 17.02.2026  168  19.5S 158.0E     1001            32



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.7S  92.7E



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 15.02.2026  120  12.7S  92.7E     1003            33

    0000UTC 16.02.2026  132  12.8S  91.5E     1003            34

    1200UTC 16.02.2026  144  11.9S  90.2E     1003            28

    0000UTC 17.02.2026  156  11.2S  89.3E     1002            26

    1200UTC 17.02.2026  168  11.1S  89.0E     1001            26



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 26.5S 177.7E



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.02.2026  168  27.7S 179.6E     1006            30



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 22.0S 115.7E



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.02.2026  168  22.0S 115.7E      998            31





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 101603